The Delta Issue #73

A Look at What’s Coming in 2026

Hi y’all, Jessica here.

Welcome back, and happy new year.

There’s something I love about these first few weeks of a new year. Even though nothing really resets overnight, it still feels like we get a small window to step back, rethink priorities, and be more intentional about what we focus on for kids.

There are several things we’re already anticipating this year: elections, tighter education budgets, and major curriculum adoptions, to name a few. No one knows exactly how it will all unfold, but this is our opportunity to be deliberate about how we want to shape what comes next.

With that in mind, here are the trends I think may define 2026.

1. Shrinking budgets will force hard choices about staffing and school buildings

Heading into 2026, state and local education budgets are under mounting pressure from multiple directions at once. Student enrollment continues to decline in many regions. Federal relief dollars that helped stabilize staffing and operations over the past few years have fully expired. And many fiscal forecasters are warning of a broader economic slowdown that could further constrain state revenues.

Together, these forces are shrinking the margin for error. Leaders are being asked to do more with less, and to make decisions they’ve been able to defer until now.

One place that pressure is surfacing is staffing. Questions about pay-for-performance, licensure requirements, and teacher pipeline rules—topics that receded somewhat over the last several years—are likely to reemerge as states and districts look for ways to stretch limited dollars while still attracting and retaining talent.

At the same time, declining enrollment and the end of federal relief funds are turning school closures and consolidation into unavoidable budget levers. States are increasingly exploring—and in some cases actively encouraging through funding and policy—district mergers and school closures, especially in rural communities where fixed costs are hardest to absorb.

The defining question for 2026 won’t be whether leaders face tough decisions. It will be whether they do it thoughtfully, transparently, with quality and fairness at the center, or simply kick the can down the road.

2. Cuts to early childhood funding will ripple across the entire system

Even if you work primarily in K–12, CCDF budgets should be on your radar now. Hundreds of millions of dollars that support early childhood care and education are managed largely outside state boards and legislatures. When cuts hit this sector, they show up quickly in workforce participation, enrollment patterns, child care stability, and ultimately school readiness.

Early childhood systems are fragile and under intense pressure from federal cuts and shrinking state budgets. That was all true before a flurry of attention on fraud in Minnesota and the Trump Administration’s decision to freeze early childhood funding in several states. Those pauses—even if temporary—will only increase uncertainty for providers, families, and the system as a whole.

The ripple effects of early childhood funding cuts will influence who shows up to kindergarten ready to learn, which families can stay in the workforce, and how much pressure schools absorb downstream.

Back in September, we shared a resource to help states track the potential impacts of shifting federal funding and think proactively about how to prevent harm to kids and families as budgets tighten. More recently, we also hosted a webinar with Nasha Patel , Catherine Pozniak , and Rebecca Ullrich focused on the CCDF funding cliff and what states can do now to plan ahead.

If you work in a governor’s office or anywhere in state government, this is a moment to pay close attention before these decisions get made for you.

3. Elections will reshape the education conversation

84% of state legislative seats are up for election this cycle. That’s 6,000 potential new faces, and they’ll soon be making decisions about what happens in classrooms.

As campaigns ramp up, I’m curious how candidates will talk about education. What themes will they latch onto? Which ideas will last beyond a single term? And will new leaders have the audacity to make decisions that truly serve kids, especially amid federal uncertainty and tightening state budgets?

I’m cautiously optimistic. In several places (Virginia is a good example) we’re seeing a renewed focus on core academics, and the conversation feels more serious and more grounded than it did even a few years ago. I’m looking forward to seeing what new leaders choose to prioritize.

4. Usage ≠ Impact

A few months back, we wrote about what edtech vendors should expect as shrinking budgets spur consolidation. It’s no longer enough to say a tool is effective. Vendors need to show that their products work in real classrooms, and be clear about how and how much students actually need to use them to see results.

But there’s a flip side to that conversation.

In a crowded edtech environment, with districts juggling tools by the dozen, time-on-task has become a proxy for impact. Each platform is expected to justify its place by capturing more minutes, when the focus should be on whether it helps students learn, not whether students use it.

Understanding how much a product needs to be used to drive impact is important. But piling on more tools, more minutes, and more requirements will mean kids spend more time navigating platforms than actually learning.

Absent clearer signals about what truly matters for learning, the vendor market will keep responding to incentives that reward the wrong things. That puts even more pressure on district leaders to be discerning, and courageous, about what they adopt and how they expect it to be used.